Japanese StainlessScrapMarket UP DATE Nov〜Dec2013

2013/11/27

 Japanese stainless steel scrap market price is still high as it was. Prices of 135 yen~140 yen are the standard range for type 304 scrap in the , but in the ongoing 'no goods and high price' market environment, in the case that the moderate amount of goods was made up, 143~145 yen + @ seemed to be up at SPOT. The largest South Korea-bound exporter, SS company has also presented reasonable price of the previously mentioned standard range at the regular route, but at SPOT, 145 yen is also here and there at Osaka yard's CIF price. And for Sanyo Special Steel, Sumikin and so forth-bound exports, H metal who has an additional price seemed to make full use of 'fare assistance' and finally maintain balls at unit price of above 140 yen.
 In Kansai area, also because of an advance in schedule and reduction in production in December, the buying of JSP (→ NSSC), who is originally the one that should pull a market, is dull and emaciated. Related to the mentioned special steel makers starting from SS company, Sanyo, dealers of Nippon Yakin-bound or in Nagoya area have activated purchasing activity in Kansai (shed price of about 143 yen), that the Nagoya dealers have been driving force behind the Kansai Stainless scrap market is also one of the causes. It looks like Sanyo Special Steel of Himeji has presented price of near 145 yen for 304 new cutting at ferrous scrap dealers. This is not only seen in Kansai, and it looks like a disordered scramble of stainless steel primary industries and ferrous scrap dealers.
 Excluding exports of POSCO of SS company, the other Korean dealers-bound and Taiwan-bound exports also don't match the profit. I wonder if $1,400 will reach the basis of CIF. Therefore, the nickel scrap takes a leading part for domestic-bound. There's even no OFFER from summer from India.
 At LME nickel market index, around $13,500/tonne is firm, and it is expected the further falling possibility would be not so high. The market is now showing the weak yen follows low price of nickel forcefully.

*Transition in Price and Stock of LME Nickel


*Exchange Transition

 The average of yen-dollar exchange (TTS) in November up to 22th is 100.38 yen, a 1.51 weaker yen month over month. Weak yen continues more in recent years to 102 yen level. If we overlook and analyze the international financial market environment, it's predicted that a weaker yen will continue in the future, as the opinion of 150 yen extremely has appeared, and that it would continue until 110 yen is possible enough.
→(Related articles) Market Price Outlook from 2014~2015: 1 Macroeconomy ? Copper

 Which is essential about the nickel market, at oversuppliness, LME stock and Chinese NPI production increase, the future pessimistic prospect will be the dominant situation. If we analyze from that recent years Chinese NPI production cost has tended to be lower than LME nickel market price, at the worst case the situation that interrupts $13,000 greatly won't continue. If we think so, if we look to nicket market at yen value basis from every side, it may be said that it's bottom price now.

Index Market Transition related to Stainless Scrap

 The stainless steel product demand in Japan is finally at recovery basic tone. There is still oversuppliness abroad, but at domestic-bound, rise in demand shows signs. The only concern is the dumpingly exports increase from South Korean. Anyhow, generally speaking about nickel scrap, the bottom prolapsed and it's predicted it'll recover moderately until March next year.
 The chrome-based products have steadily changed centeredly in cars products. But at materials side, whether using chrome scrap, because from the beginning the compounding ratio of chrome scrap in domestic stainless special steel maker is averaged ratio of below 15%~20%, even if the production increases, the domestic demand is low and it goes to powerful export-bound market. There is a little outbreak and it's completely opposite from the nickel-based of the domestic reliance.
 The buying price of chrome-based 18Cr is 44-48 yen/kg. For export, is 13Cr-based, around 55-57 yen/kg (Chinese CIF price). This is also a strong item from Nagoya.
 About the maker's price in December, the purchase volume and stance of scrap differ from each maker's production quantity. And of course the buying prices range also differs. While maintaining the current multiple price range, due to the effect of weak yen and some rise in price, it's expected the individual bargaining price case by case will expand.
(IRuniverse Susan)

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